If you had some known good pieces (maybe from someone elses car?) to swap that would be great for process of elimination. If not at least try checking the resistance on the coil first. Take a multi meter set to check ohms and look for 11k-13k across the towers. If not within that range, youve most likely found that the problem is the coil. If it checks out okay, could be the mod. However as you already may know, when it comes to automobiles of any make, there are often multiple problems and it could be both (especially on used cars). Good luck, your starting in the right area.
Just thought of something else to add to the list of possiblities, after checking ignition items. You say it is backfiring. From the intake, or out the exhaust? How rich are we talking here? Cam sensor, timing chain was already mentioned. I have had experience with a TR that had injector problems so bad that raw gas was actually coming out of the tail pipes. It came about all of a sudden with no warning. The car finally stopped running all together. Took forever to figure it out. Finally tried swapping injectors and it was fine. The stockers were stuck open or ??? On this car backfire was definately out the exhaust (unburnt gas/very rich), thats why I asked.