It could possibly have something to do with your iac and the settings. Real easy way to check (even if it isn't your iac) is to log the first cold start up, then log the second start up (which is fine, and will actually start the car). Compare the two and see what's different, and you'll have your answer.
Since it was stated it could be your fuel pump, increase the pump turn on time to longer and try to start it. I don't think your pump is on the way out however since you'd have other issues also. It could be however but you'd see it in your logs.